COVID-19 Megathread

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So who else is growing their hair out? *snip*

Related to that, I haven't shaved once from the start of my quarantine. Each day I contemplate going at it, but then I resign myself to a deep curiosity as to how big the thing can get untended.
*snip*



I am, haven't cut my hair in nine years. Last time I did it was because I was hanging out with my brother and a group of friends, we were all passing off on 1v1s in MW2. When it was my turn two of my friends started tying my hair in knots, I though it was hilarious and just let it happen. They mangles the hell out of it and I had to cut it off.

I also just clipped off my beard yesterday morning after two years of not bothering with it. I feel beautiful.
Need a new signature, cuz name change. I dunno though. I guess this seems fine. Yeah, this is good.
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The_Impeacher wrote:
In the interest of thread continuation, I'm relegating myself as reader only!

No more grim reality numbers from me!


What's the point continuing a thread that's effectively empty of any real content? Well, I suppose that's a bit harsh. The personal anecdotes people are sharing are meaningful to them I suppose, but that's hardly discussing the virus itself. Hell, one can do that sort of thing in any kind of situation, including the good times.

Also, it's a sad commentary on this thread itself that it needs to be protected from "grim reality" (even if I never agreed with how you calculated that death rate) in order to carry on. Why even join a thread on such a topic if you're the kind of person who doesn't want to be exposed to such stuff? There's plenty of happier threads, even right here - for example, that long-running anime thread is still going strong (plus you can always start your own, if none of the existing ones is your jam).
[quote="Qarl"]Fixed a bug where occasionally Fairgraves, Neverdying never dies[/quote]
We can still talk about the technicalities of the virus. Mathematics is truth or at least an approximation of the truth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6nLfCbAzgo

Still need to watch it myself.

EDIT: Things there are not mentioned.

1) The easiest approach to solve a set of ODE's is by making use of a simple numerical runge-kutta scheme.

2) If you sum S' + R' + I' you get zero which has to be the case as the sum of infected, recovered and susceptible is a constant.

3) In a better model, the transmission and recovery constants become time dependant.


I amnot going to bother looking into this topic as already a lot of people are busy modeling it.
Heart of Purity

The sense of challenge, danger and mystery has been replaced by a feeling of entitlement, security and predictability.
Mirek Le Fou - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9i7i7LHmL0
Lore - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xydfHw6qrB0
Last edited by Reinhart on Apr 3, 2020, 4:30:43 PM
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Necromael wrote:
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Necromael wrote:


On the topic, been enclosed at home for 5 weeks, I'm used to it from before, just waiting for it to pass and counting the days.


5 weeks! Impressive. What do you mean, 'used to it from before'? What happened?


Since my youthful days I had compromised immunity and was getting sick off any imaginable flu or cold you can imagine, roughly 50% of time, which can be attested by my primary/high school absence documentation mostly.

Worst point was around the time I was 16, then I spent around 6 months bedridden at home/hospital, so being healthy now and in selfimposed isolation for few weeks is nothing compared to that.

Just to address it, around the age of 20, my immune system began working as advertised again and now on average I get a cold once every year. Which is a good thing for me, disregarding other chronic conditions i may have, I'm very happy regarding that.


Good for you, dude. That sounds rough, especially at a time of your life when your body should otherwise be in peak condition.

Funny thing about my deliberately suppressed immune system. I catch *fewer* colds than before but when I do, they hit harder. Thankfully I haven't gotten the flu itself since I started suppressing my immunity system (2015) and I am very fastidious about getting the flu shot every year. Not sure about this year...is it worth braving a GP to get it? Well, the authorities are encouraging people to get the flu shot sooner than usual for pretty obvious reasons, but if I'm not leaving the house I don't see that much threat of catching it in the first place.

So you never found out what the autoimmune condition was, or why it just went away? To my knowledge, that isn't too common an occurrence.

I am W James Chan, author of Blackcloak: A Man of His Sword, the novel from which the PoE unique Oni-Goroshi is derived. So if you liked that, give the book a go on Amazon. I think it's pretty good -- but like Her, it isn't to be come at lightly, and it definitely isn't what it first seems to be.
London school of hygiene and tropical medicine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZ957qhzcjI
Heart of Purity

The sense of challenge, danger and mystery has been replaced by a feeling of entitlement, security and predictability.
Mirek Le Fou - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9i7i7LHmL0
Lore - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xydfHw6qrB0
Am I allowed to say that some countries are making serious progress? Denmark and Austria for example are definitely flattening it (meaning they have a constant number of cases without huge jumps, so they are definitely not overloading their healthcare systems). Switzerland is moving in this direction too. The smaller EU countries are handling this.


I did not include governments and my message was purely positive.
It's far too early to talk about progress. All trendlines are still pointing up and each country has different criteria who gets tested and delays.

It's exponential growth.


Which curve will a country get?



Several countries are on lockdown for mere 2 weeks.

I strongly recommend looking at the Spanish flu graphs(which overwhelmed the world with modern medicine doing the first steps)


Highly populated countries must have an extended lockdown to minimize the risk of follow-up waves.

The question is whether or not it will be over around August/September or if it will drag on much longer!

While prder is like lockdown for 2-3 weeks then repeated extended for 2-3 weeks you have to look at the big picture.

Major summer events like the Euros2020 the Olympic games have been postponed, which means it won't be over in the summer.
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Necromael wrote:


Since my youthful days I had compromised immunity and was getting sick off any imaginable flu or cold you can imagine, roughly 50% of time, which can be attested by my primary/high school absence documentation mostly.

Worst point was around the time I was 16, then I spent around 6 months bedridden at home/hospital, so being healthy now and in selfimposed isolation for few weeks is nothing compared to that.

Just to address it, around the age of 20, my immune system began working as advertised again and now on average I get a cold once every year. Which is a good thing for me, disregarding other chronic conditions i may have, I'm very happy regarding that.


Good for you, dude. That sounds rough, especially at a time of your life when your body should otherwise be in peak condition.

Funny thing about my deliberately suppressed immune system. I catch *fewer* colds than before but when I do, they hit harder. Thankfully I haven't gotten the flu itself since I started suppressing my immunity system (2015) and I am very fastidious about getting the flu shot every year. Not sure about this year...is it worth braving a GP to get it? Well, the authorities are encouraging people to get the flu shot sooner than usual for pretty obvious reasons, but if I'm not leaving the house I don't see that much threat of catching it in the first place.

So you never found out what the autoimmune condition was, or why it just went away? To my knowledge, that isn't too common an occurrence.

I was constantly ill with this, that, or the other thing in my youth as well. I was never diagnosed with any kind of specific condition, I was just always sick. Including with some off the wall stuff like Shigella (which diarrhea still gives me vivid flashbacks of 35 yrs later--thoroughly nightmarish experience from start to finish).

In my mid-teens, I spent the better part of two years battling with bouts of chronic pharyngitis. My last one resulted in a trip to the ER. Woke up with a very sore throat one morning, and could barely breathe by the evening. The ER doc gave me two injections of a cocktail of antibiotics+idontknowwhat, one in each ass cheek. Was vastly improved by the next morning, and perfectly fine two days later.

Then...I basically didn't get sick anymore for many years. From anything.

I finally had 2 colds and 1 round of the flu not long after moving to Taiwan permanently, I'm guessing due to sudden exposure to local virus strains. That case of flu was about 8 years ago, and I haven't been sick with anything again since then. My wife picks up colds several times per year and occasionally flu, due to being around kids at school 8-10 hrs per day 6 days per week. It never carries over to me for whatever reason.

Birth-16 was awfully rough for me illness-wise, 16-45 not so much. No clue why, and can't point to anything other than those 2 ass jabs. Before and after was quite night and day. I sometimes wonder if as an adult I might be one of those people who actually does get infected with various things but has no symptoms.

The human body is a wonderfully bizarre meatsuit.
I have a pretty good sense of humor. I'm not German.
For some actual hard i.e. useful talk about this virus, and which isn't political (since Wraeclast apparently has no politics), here's a good video summarizing the current state of knowledge about its symptoms for ya'll to look out for - https://youtu.be/p-o-PTluS9M

Looks like this thread is trending ever so slightly towards politics again. The horror! It'd be pretty funny if the mods had to shut down their own thread though. :p
[quote="Qarl"]Fixed a bug where occasionally Fairgraves, Neverdying never dies[/quote]
Last edited by Exile009 on Apr 4, 2020, 2:49:38 AM
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Reinhart wrote:
London school of hygiene and tropical medicine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZ957qhzcjI


It's a blank slate for anyone with training in math/statistics to help out modelling on the long-term effects and future shape of our supply chains for medical equipment as well as consumables under quarantine, shelter-in-place, and essential labour protections.

A familiar buzzword in manufacturing circles, "Just-in-time" has come to mean economic trimming in the form of eliminating wasted materials and costs by carrying as low a static inventory as possible, and ideally producing widgets to order with no remainder.

As companies have come to embrace this policy more and more, a disruption in the supply or production of everything from machine parts to ventilators to light bulbs could have a far bigger impact today than perhaps 25 years ago when many companies treated production overruns with benign neglect or, at worst, tax breaks.

Granted, today we have more ways to work from home than ever before, and we also have 3D printing as a home industry for many (and potentially vastly many more). I'm not at all expecting a return to the iron-lung days of Polio triage of grandfather's day, nor a black market in durable medical equipment. No doubt people will hear about shady deals and shoddy equipment from "somewhere", but the groundwork is out there for decentralized 3D fidelity and materials testing.

I'm more than a little curious how all this will shape the economy going forward with months, perhaps a year or more, of reduced workforce and occasionally explosive demands and shortages. How labour relations will be shaped by employees' newfound empowerment from their homes, and perhaps how corporate leadership of various types fare as providers in times of crisis.
"How do you lure the Elder to the centre of the Atlas?"
"A box trap with some candy should do the trick"

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